Canada's Energy Outlook: 1996 - 2020
by The Energy Forecasting Division,
Energy Policy Branch,
Energy Sector,
Ministry of Supply and Services Canada, April 1997,
79 pages and 4 annexes
Neil McIlveen, Director
19th floor, 580 Booth St., Ottawa, ON K1A 0E4 (613)995-8762
- a reference outlook for greenhouse gas emissions over the next 25 years
- a judgement of what might happen under a set of plausible assumptions about the future
(page v)
World oil demand is expected to grow from 75 million barrels per day (mmb/d) to 100 mmb/d by 2015
OPEC ... projected production to increase from current level of 35 mmb/d to 60 mmb/d
(page vi)
North American natural gas prices are projected to increase modestly to $US 1.90 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) (1995$) by 2000 and $US 2.05/mcf by 2005. No changes in price are anticipated past 2005. The low price scenario is supported by technological development in both the upstream and downstream segments of the industry.
---
The latest US Energy Information Administration forecast for natural gas net imports to increase from 2.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 1995 to 4.1 Tcf by 2015, with most of the increase provided by Canadian sources. ---
Population is expected to be 7 million higher in 2020 relative to 1995. More than 60 percent of this increase is related to immigration.
(page vii)
Total end-use demand will be 5 percent higher in 2000 and 27 percent higher in 2020 than in 1995.
Energy demand in the industrial sector grows the fastest at 1.3 percent per annum. By 2020, demand in this sector is projected to be 38 percent higher than the 1995 level, and its share of the total end-use demand increases from 43 percent in 1995 to 47 percent in 2020. ...
The residential sector experiences a decline in energy demand, due largely to the strong impact of energy efficiency programs and regulations. The share of this sector to total end-use demand declines from 19 percent in 1995 to 15 percent in 2020.
(page viii)
Overall, the shares of the major fuels do not change significantly over the long term. Oil, natural gas, and electricity represent about 40 percent, 26 percent and 20 percent respectively of total end-use demand. Somewhat surprising, natural gas does not increase its share. ... declining demand in the residential and commercial sectors. --- moving to mid and high efficiency furnaces and more efficient thermal shells for buildings. ...
The oil and natural gas industry will reduce its domestic reinvestment of cashflow from 89 percent historically to 82 percent during the projection period. ...
Technological advances and diffusion will lower finding and development costs of new reserve additions and increase recovery factors from existing reservoirs. --- natural gas replacement cost remains at 65 cents per thousand cubic feet.
(page ix)
Natural gas production increases from 5.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 1995 to reach 6.9 Tcf in 2020. Domestic demand increases from 2.5 Tcf in 1995 to 2.8 Tcf in 2000 and 3.2 Tcf in 2020. Natural gas exports will continue to increase from 2.8 Tcf in 1995 to 3.1 Tcf in 2000 and 3.7 Tcf in 2020.
(page x)
The demand for natural gas (and LPGs) is projected to grow steadily over the forecast period, rising by 30 percent to 4600 PJ (petajoules) by 2020, compared to the 1995 level of 3500 PJ. The major sources of growth in natural gas demand are the industrial and electricity generation sectors.
(page 1)
"There may always be another reality
To make fiction of the truth we think we have arrived at."
by Christopher Fry, from A Yard of Sun
VCR (Voluntary Challenge and Registry actions)
(page 47)
Natural gas exports, in 1995, reached 2.8 Tcf, reflecting rapid increases over the past 9 years. Canadian natural gas exports now account for about 50 percent of Canadian natural gas production and 12 percent of US demand ... Earnings from natural gas exports were $6.8 billion ($1995) in 1994.
(page 64)
Unlike oil, the demand for natural gas has increased by 77 percent over 1980 - 1995, averaging an annual rate of 3.9% --- a major beneficiary of oil substitution initiatives such as the Canadian Oil Substitution Program.
(page B-6)
Both major transmission and distribution pipelines are significant fuel consumers accounting for 245 PJ in 1995, similar to that of the iron and steel industry. --- use has been projected to decline by 1 percent per year, starting in 1998 (Based on the VCR submissions by the major pipeline and distribution companies.)
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for the complete report, purchase your copy from the source noted above, OR, see the book in your public library, try reference - catalog-shelf number 333.79021C
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